His central message was that the exponential growth in computing power is set to continue indefinitely, and this in turn will lead to exponential growth throughout a range of sectors.
Moore’s Law famously states that the computing power of integrated chips doubles every two years. Critics say this growth will soon reach its limit, and Kurzweil agrees. But crucially, he says that when this happens, today’s chips will simply be replaced with 3D chips, and these will enable exponential growth to continue for decades to come.
This means that, “In 25 years our devices will be a billion times more powerful per dollar than they are today. This exponential growth means that new ideas and technologies will become possible”.
Kurzweil highlighted medicine as an area that is being revolutionised by information technology. For two centuries, advances in medicine were largely driven by happy accident. This was a little like early people, using stones as tools – they knew what tools they needed, but didn’t have the ability to build their own tools and so had to use whatever was to hand. Kurzweil says that the mapping of the human genome has now given us the ability to build our own medical tools – it has turned biology into an information process. This means that medical treatments can now for the first time evolve at an exponential rate. We’re already starting to see stem cell technology used to regenerate organs, and this process can only accelerate.
The same can be seen in manufacturing. 3D printers can now create a fully working violin from information sent by email. 3D printing can already create complex machinery. And it’s being used to invent solutions to pressing social issues. For example, 3D printers could create the building blocks needed to create robust clip-together housing. Technology has turned physical objects into information technology, and so once again we can expect to see exponential development in this area.
With self-replicating machines and real Artificial Intelligence just around the corner, Ray Kurzweil was asked how we can stop machines from taking over. He was optimistic on this point: information technology will amplify our own intelligence – it will make us smarter and expand our capabilities. And as our gadgets get smarter, so too they will continue to get smaller, until they are the size of a blood cell and implanted into our bodies. This will have the added benefit of making them more difficult to lose, Kurzweil joked.
For further information contact
Andrew McLachlan 07931.377162
Sion Taylor 07768.372714
Katy Lithgow 07938.787011
Learning Without Frontiers 2012: 25 & 26 January 2012
www.learningwithoutfrontiers.com/lwf12
